Short-Term Forecasting of Surface Solar Irradiance Based on Meteosat-SEVIRI Data Using a Nighttime Cloud Index
نویسندگان
چکیده
The cloud index is a key parameter of the Heliosat method. This method is widely used to calculate solar irradiance on the Earth’s surface from Meteosat visible channel images. Moreover, cloud index images are the basis of short-term forecasting of solar irradiance and photovoltaic power production. For this purpose, cloud motion vectors are derived from consecutive images, and the motion of clouds is extrapolated to obtain forecasted cloud index images. The cloud index calculation is restricted to the daylight hours, as long as SEVIRI HR-VIS images are used. Hence, this forecast method cannot be used before sunrise. In this paper, a method is introduced that can be utilized a few hours before sunrise. The cloud information is gained from the brightness temperature difference (BTD) of the 10.8 μm and 3.9 μm SEVIRI infrared channels. A statistical relation is developed to assign a cloud index value to either the BTD or the brightness temperature T10.8, depending on the cloud class to which the pixel belongs (fog and low stratus, clouds with temperatures less than 232 K, other clouds). Images are composed of regular HR-VIS cloud index values that are used to the east of the terminator and of nighttime BTD-derived cloud index values used to the west of the terminator, where the Sun has not yet risen. The motion vector algorithm is applied to the images and delivers a forecast of irradiance at sunrise and in the morning. The forecasted irradiance is validated with ground measurements of global horizontal irradiance, and the advantage of the new approach is shown. The RMSE of forecasted irradiance based on the presented nighttime cloud index for the morning hours is between 3 and 70 W/m, depending on the time of day. This is an improvement against Remote Sens. 2015, 7 9071 the previous precision range of the forecast based on the daytime cloud index between 70 and 85 W/m.
منابع مشابه
Correction: Hammer, J., et al. Short-Term Forecasting of Surface Solar Irradiance Based on Meteosat-SEVIRI Data Using a Nighttime Cloud Index. Remote Sens. 2015, 7, 9070-9090
متن کامل
Satellite Based Short-term Forecasting of Solar Irradance - Comparison of Methods and Error Analysis -
Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. As far as short-term time horizons (up to 2h) are concerned, satellite data are a high quality source for information about radiation with excellent temporal and spatial resolution. Due to the strong impact of cloudiness on surface irradiance the ...
متن کاملShort term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data
Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance have a significant influence on electric power generation by solar energy systems. An efficient use of solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour with respective operating strategies. Examp...
متن کاملFirst results on a process-oriented rain area classification technique using Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI nighttime data
A new technique for process-oriented rain area classification using Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI nighttime data is introduced. It is based on a combination of the Advective Convective Technique (ACT) which focuses on precipitation areas connected to convective processes and the Rain Area Delineation Scheme during Nighttime (RADS-N) a new technique for the improved detection of stratiform p...
متن کاملSpatial and Temporal Homogeneity of Solar Surface Irradiance across Satellite Generations
Solar surface irradiance (SIS) is an essential variable in the radiation budget of the Earth. Climate data records (CDR’s) of SIS are required for climate monitoring, for climate model evaluation and for solar energy applications. A 23 year long (1983–2005) continuous and validated SIS CDR based on the visible channel (0.45–1 μm) of the MVIRI instruments onboard the first generation of Meteosat...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Remote Sensing
دوره 7 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2015